WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy appears be faring better
in the third quarter than analysts had feared with automakers reporting
surprisingly strong August sales on Wednesday, helping to buoy
expectations of a pullback in monetary stimulus ahead.
In another report, the Federal Reserve said strong demand for autos
helped keep the economy on a "modest to moderate" growth path in recent
weeks, an assessment that leaves the door open for a reduction in the
central bank's bond purchases.
Auto sales rose 17 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 16.1 million units. That was the fastest pace since
October 2007 and beat the 15.8 million-unit rate analysts surveyed by
Reuters had expected.
It was also the latest sign that economic activity is picking up
after hitting a speed bump in July and supported stocks and bond yields,
although the dollar fell from a six-week high against a basket of
currencies as investors looked forward to a key jobs report on Friday.
Auto sales are a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.
"We continue to head in the right direction," said Ryan Sweet, a
senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
"With vehicle sales above 16 million (and) a slow but steadily improving
job market, the Fed is going to feel comfortable tapering in
September."
The central bank has been buying $85 billion in bonds each month to
keep borrowing costs low. It is widely expected to reduce that amount
when officials meet later this month and a strong gain in hiring for
August would cement those bets.
A raft of weak data for July, including figures on consumer
spending, industrial output, durable goods orders and homebuilding, had
prompted economists to downgrade their third quarter growth estimates to
as low as a 1.5 percent annual pace.
But the strong vehicle sales suggested those forecasts could undershoot.
"It may be a sign that the consumer will add more to growth this
quarter than we initially thought," said Sweet. The economy grew 2.5
percent in the second quarter.
The auto sector's good fortunes were captured in the Fed's Beige
Book report, which found strong demand for motor vehicles lifted
spending in most parts of the country in early July through late August.
The report, prepared for the Fed's September 17-18 meeting and based
on information collected from its business contacts nationwide, said
several of the central bank's 12 districts reported strong demand for
auto-related products.
AUTOS DRIVE GROWTH
"Chicago highlighted the auto industry as a main source of strength
for that district's overall manufacturing sector, and contacts there
expect demand for heavy and medium trucks to ratchet up further and to
support growth in overall manufacturing for the remainder of the year,"
the Fed said.
In Cleveland, there were reports motor vehicle parts suppliers and
assembly plants would need to expand capacity in order to meet demand,
it said.
The strong sales reported by car makers and the Beige Book's
findings backed up a survey from the Institute for Supply Management on
Tuesday showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in August,
driven by sturdy gains in new orders.
"The relatively positive tone on the manufacturing sector appears
quite consistent with the underlying theme of the recent ISM
manufacturing sector reports, and is likely to be seen as an early
signal of a more meaningful upturn in activity in the coming months,"
said Millan Mulraine, senior economist at TD Securities in New York.
"It will add to the other economic reports showing steady progress
in the recovery, and pointing to some modest upside momentum for growth
in the coming months."
Strong demand for autos also fueled import growth in July, helping
to drive up the nation's trade deficit. The Commerce Department said the
trade deficit widened 13.3 percent to $39.1 billion.
Auto imports reached an all-time high, and overall imports rose 1.6 percent.
Exports slipped 0.6 percent even as exports of petroleum products
hit a record high and the country sold more food and industrial
supplies.
A widening trade gap usually subtracts from GDP, the deficit held
near its second quarter average, suggesting trade would likely have
little effect on third-quarter economic growth.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, additional reporting by Bernie Woodall
and Ben Klayman in Detroit; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Krista Hughes)
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